Contact Information
Biography
Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology at the University of Washington in Seattle. He was born in Dublin, Ireland, and obtained a B.A. in Mathematics (1976) and an M.Sc. in Statistics and Operations Research (1977) at Trinity College Dublin. He obtained a doctorate in mathematical statistics in 1980 from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris, France under the supervision of Paul Deheuvels. He was a lecturer in statistics at Trinity College Dublin from 1980 to 1986, and then an associate (1986-1990) and full (1990-present) professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. He was the founding Director of the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences (1999-2009).
Raftery has published over 170 refereed articles in statistical, sociological and other journals. His research focuses on Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, model-based clustering, inference for deterministic simulation models, and the development of new statistical methods for sociology, demography, and the environmental and health sciences.
He is a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy, a member of the Washington State Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association. He has won the Population Association of America's Clifford C. Clogg Award, the American Sociological Association's Paul F. Lazarsfeld Award for Distinguished Contribution to Knowledge, the Jerome Sacks Award for Outstanding Cross-Disciplinary Research from the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, and the Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. He is also a former Coordinating and Applications Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and a former Editor of Sociological Methodology. He was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI.
Twenty-six students have obtained Ph.D.'s working under Raftery's supervision, of whom 18 hold university faculty positions.
Research
Selected Research
- Model-based Clustering and Classification for Data Science, with Applications in R, by Bouveyron, C., Celeux, G., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E., Cambridge University Press, 2019. Published in the Cambridge Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics series.
- Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M. W. Frierson, Richard Startz & Peiran Liu. "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely." Nature Climate Change (2017) doi:10.1038/nclimate3352
- Maltiel, R., Raftery, A. E., McCormick, T. H., and Baraff, A. (2015) Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. To appear, Annals of Applied Statistics.
- Wheldon, Mark, Adrian E. Raftery, Samuel J. Clark and Patrick Gerland. 2015. "ʺBayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality."ʺ Journal of the Royal Statistical Association, Series A.
- Wheldon, Mark, Adrian E. Raftery, Samuel J. Clark and Patrick Gerland. 2015 In Review. "ʺBayesian Population Reconstruction for Less Developed and Developed Countries."ʺ Population Studies.
- Sharrow, David J., Yanjun He, Samuel J. Clark and Adrian E. Raftery. 2015 In Preparation. "ʺProbabilistic Projections of Mortality in Countries with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics for Use in Total Population Projection."ʺ
- Lenkoski, A., Eicher, T.S. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants. Econometric Reviews 33:122–151.
- Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demographic Research 30:1011–1034.
- Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. Demographic Research 30:795–822.
- Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2014). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, 8:125–136.
- Sˇevˇc´ıkov´a, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Bayesian probabilistic population projections using R. In Proceedings of the Sixth Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (M. Marsili and G. Capacci, eds), Eurostat/UN/ISTAT, pp. 347–359.
- Celeux, G., Martin-Magniette, M.-L., Maugis-Rabusseau, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Comparing Model Selection and Regularization Approaches to Variable Selection in Model-Based Clustering. Journal de la Soci´et´e Fran¸caise de Statistique, 155:57–71.
- Azose, J.A. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Bayesian probabilistic projection of international migration rates. In Proceedings of the Sixth Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (M. Marsili and G. Capacci, eds), Eurostat/UN/ISTAT, pp. 341–346.
- Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2014). “Fast Bayesian Inference for Gene Regulatory Networks Using ScanBMA.” BMC Systems Biology, 8:article 47.
- Raftery, A.E. (2014). Paul Deheuvels: Mentor, Advocate for Statistics, and Applied Statistician. In Mathematical Statistics and Limit Theorems: Festschrift for Paul Deheuvels, (edited by D.M. Mason, M. Hallin, D. Pfeifer and J. Steinebach), New York: Springer, 1–6.
- Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). “Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics.” PLoS One, 9:article e96447.
- Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014) “Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.” Statistical Science, 29:58–68.
- Gerland, P., Raftery A.E. [co-first author], Sˇevˇc´ıkov´a, H., Li, N., Gu, D.A., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science 346:234–237.
- Sharrow, David J., Samuel J. Clark and Adrian E. Raftery. 2014. "ʺModeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics."ʺ PLoS One, 9.5:e96447.
- Liu, D.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline? Population and Development Review 46:409–441.
- Liu, D.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline? Population and Development Review 46:409–441.
- Raftery, A.E., Sevˇc´ıkov´a, H. and Silverman, B.W. (2021). “The vote Package: Single Transferable ˇ Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R.” R Journal 13(2): 673–696.
- Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Comparing methods for statistical inference with model uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(16):e2120737119.
- Hern´andez, B., Raftery, A.E., Pennington, S.R. and Parnell, A.C. (2018). Bayesian Additive Regression Trees using Bayesian Model Averaging. Statistics and Computing 28:869–890.
- STATISTICAL METHODS FOR POPULATION PROJECTIONS. Competing Renewal (2017-2022) funded by NICHD. Adrian Raftery, PI.
- Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (in press). Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. Annals of Applied Statistics, to appear.
- Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (in press). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, to appear.